Does Bitcoin have a chance to grow to $ 16,000?
maybe, bitcoin rate repeats the April 2019 fractal.
However, despite for similar price dynamics, technical indicators do not confirm the similarities.
Breakthrough above $ 8100 will increase the chances that the BTC will repeat this fractal again.
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Throughout April-May 2019, Bitcoin was trading inside a rising wedge. This model considered bearish reversal pattern, however the price made a bullish breakout and rallied 100 +%.
This prompted @RookieXBT, popular in the crypto community, to consider the likelihood of a similar growth BTC this time too. For of this he compared on the chart for bitcoin two rising wedge – 2019 and current.
The trader warned the bears that while a similar scenario is for undesirable, they should not totally reject such a possibility and underestimate bitcoin.
Comparison of fractals
If we take a look at both graphics, then first of all, the similarities in time intervals are striking and quantity touches lines resistance (four times in both cases). In 2019 bullish the breakthrough was made in 37 days. Currently already day 40 is coming.
As for the differences, the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MA) and their interaction with price should be noted here..
Bitcoin traded in 2019 over both MA, which before that a bullish crossover was formed (green arrow).
Accordingly, if there was a bullish momentum last year, then now it is bearish. This increases the likelihood that this time the price will make a bearish breakout rather than bullish, as it did in 2019..
Another difference is found when comparing price dynamics before the appearance of the “wedge”, and also if accept into account the Fibonacci levels.
Currently, a wedge has formed on the chart immediately after a rapid decline in prices. On moment writing the analysis, bitcoin traded between Fibo levels 0.618 and 0.786 (a good place to trigger a trend reversal).
Besides Togo, last year the price rose above the Fibo level of 0.786 long before the bullish breakout. This also confirms done us earlier conclusion about Tom, what if last year there is was bullish momentum, now it is bearish “.
Thus, the current price dynamics of bitcoin and the pattern created by it are very similar to the situation in April 2019.. but on this the similarities end immediately. If in 2019 the price made a bullish breakout of the rising wedge, this a repeat of a similar scenario is unlikely. This is indicated by the important resistance blocking the path to the north for the price, as well as the bearish moving averages..
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