How much is the upcoming Bitcoin halving taken into account in prices?
The third halving of bitcoin will take place in May.
Dynamics BTC and RSI diverges from signals during previous halvings.
The situation in the global economy makes forecasting difficult course bitcoin.
International consortium of news organizations, developing transparency standards.
Third halving: Bitcoin halving cuts number new coins, created and earned by miners, in two times. It happens about every four years and… More bitcoin will take place on May 12, and on the eve of of this events most time compare dynamics token before the two previous halvings. how shows this comparison, there are actually not many similarities.
Investors and speculators are preparing for the upcoming halving with might and main, showing a record high interest in this subject, about than says impetuous growth search queries “halving bitcoin” in Google. No less curious question, which the interests many – how important it is for industry event will affect the course the main digital currency in the current economic climate, which leaves much to be desired.
We will also look at the dynamics of Bitcoin and compare it with previous halvings in order to identify similarities and differences and determine how much the upcoming event is accounted for in current prices..
RSI: similarities and differences
The two previous halvings were held on November 26, 2012 and July 11, 2016 of the year.
In the first case, the maximum was recorded 105 days before halving. On that weekly day RSI reached the overbought zone, after which it fell sharply.
A similar picture was observed before the second halving, but the top was reached only 28 days before the event, and then the RSI, and the price itself fell, but unlike the situation in 2012, the fall continued and after halving, and quotes were marked at lows already a few weeks after the event.
However, the current dynamics diverge from the previous one. several parameters:
- First, the aforementioned high was not accompanied by a rise in the RSI into the overbought zone..
- Second, bitcoin fell more than 50% of the February high, which was not the case in the two previous cases.
And although such a small number of events does not allow doing reliable forecasts, it should be noted that the behavior of Bitcoin itself and RSI differs from the dynamics before the two previous halvings.
Comparison of the dynamics of the moving average
An interesting comparison is provided by the participation in the analysis of the 100-week moving average. On the dates of the first two halvings, bitcoin traded 85% above this MA, then how current price located just on the moving average.
If the 85% rise from the MA is repeated, the price will be around $ 13,500 per day of halving. Such the scenario seems unlikely, especially given the short-term bearish technical signals. In other words, the rate is unlikely to rise. above February high of $ 10,505 ahead of halving.
So way, current Bitcoin dynamics and technical indicators are at odds with the signals that were observed before the second halving, and we do not expect that cryptocurrency will update the highs above the $ 10,500 level by May 12.
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